There’s one turn of phrase that keeps coming back: “This will level the playing field”. Time and time again, something new hits the market, and everyone goes “This is amazing, now anyone can do X.” From the invention of the wheel and the hammer to today’s software, this is the next big thing that will level the playing field. Everybody and your grandmother can now do things they couldn’t do before.
A.I. is just the latest gadget in the enormously long chain of products of which this has been said, and it won’t be the last, for sure. Don’t get me wrong: New tools do allow entry into the game for people who previously couldn’t join. Now everyone can play.
There’s excitement and worry about that, at the same time. People who couldn’t do the thing before, are excited that they now can. And people who trained to do the thing that few others could do before, are worried. Once you can read and write, you don’t need to pay someone to write letters for you, or read you the letters you received. You can buy a set of power tools for yourselves, you don’t need to hire someone else. You can buy a car, you don’t need a farrier. Markets change all the time, some jobs disappear. On the other hand, new jobs will inevitably replace them.
At first, when the playing field levels, there’s a goldrush to join the game. Remember when blogging was new and someone slapped some ads on there and made money? Oh my god, you can make money by blogging! Everyone started a blog. The market flooded with blogs about every topic under the sun. A level playing field, joy! Until people wake up and discover that in order for something to be worth money, that thing has to add value to someone else’s life. People don’t pay for something that doesn’t provide value to them. At least not twice. To make money, you have to either save other people their precious time by making something easier for them, or entertain them. You need to do something that the other person can’t or doesn’t want to do for themselves. Even though the internet is a useful tool to connect people, to trade across the globe, you still have to have substance to make money. Money = value. You can’t make money without adding at least an equal amount of value for the money that you are paid. There is of course also the option to promise people money in the future and get them to pay you now. Sure. But here’s the thing: You have to deliver. Someday, some time, somehow. Or else, nobody will give you any money again. Can you still make good money blogging? Some people do. But it takes perseverance, discipline and ability. Only when you’re really good will people pay you for the ad space and your news letters.
Let’s continue the inventory, shall we?
A webshop! You can make money with a webshop! Everyone started a webshop. The market flooded with new webshops, selling everything from fairtrade soaps to nail polish for your cat. How many actually make good money? Today? Some do. But not just any webshop is viable. Which ones are? The ones that offer value to their customers. In fthe form of good products or good customer service or a personal relationship. You can’t just start a webshop and throw cheap crap on there. Unless you’re playing the short game and are ready to jump to the next fad when this one fizzles out. There are always people who play the short game. But when you want a sustainable source of income, forget it. It takes time, effort and delivering a quality product or service. (Incidentally, I’m looking for a new peanut butter shop that has 100% pure peanut butter with chunks and delivers to The Netherlands. The one I have now has switched suppliers and their new peanut butter is a gooey oily mess.)
Self-publishing? That one’s also a great example. Now everyone can publish a book! Combine it with printing on demand, and you don’t need an initial investment anymore. You don’t need to send your manuscript to a publisher and wait for them to decide if you’re any good. If anything levels the playing field, it’s something like that. But is it still possible to make a living being a full-time writer? Only if you’re good. And maybe good doesn’t mean just being good at writing. Maybe you also need to be good at marketing, or good at maintaining social connections with people who are good at marketing, or… Everybody else, who resorts to self-publishing and writes a little book, and posts about it on their social media accounts, can expect to make a handful of sales at three bucks per book. There’s nothing wrong with that, just write that book you’ve always wanted to write! Enjoy the process, be proud of the work. But don’t expect that, whether the playing field is “level” or not, you have high odds of becoming a best selling author unless you work for it.
Since anyone can now freely enter a playing field, it has become harder to be discovered. The signal to noise ratio goes wonky. The playing field floods with people who think it’s easy to kick the ball around. They’ve seen others do it. Now it’s their turn. Nothing is ever that easy. Entry doesn’t mean winning, or getting good. Entry just means that. Entry. There are other factors to turning something into a success. Walking into the arena is just the first part. When the excitement wears off, you discover that getting beyond “Hello, World!” isn’t that easy at all.
I think the same holds for using A.I. If A.I. now enables anyone to solve any problem (let’s go with the goldrush-thinking for a moment), then anyone can solve the same problems you can. Your grandmother could make an app. How will you stand out? How do you get people to pay you for your work? By being exceptional. At what, exactly? Prompt engineering? I’m guessing you won’t get rich by just knowing how to use A.I. Just knowing how to install webshop software or how to use a text editor to write a blog or book won’t get you there, either. You’ll have to increase your skills. At finding good problems worth solving. You’ll have to get better at marketing, or sales, or connecting to people or… Heck, I don’t know what those things are, you’ll have to figure them out for yourself. Just knowing how to use a hammer doesn’t in and of itself make you any money.
A level playing field doesn’t mean that hard problems get any less hard. It just means more people join who hope that someone else did the hard work for them. They hope that finally, their dream of never again having to work a day in their life comes true. The hard truth? You’ll have to work every day of your life. Nobody gets out from under that requirement. These people will soon give up. No matter what you pursue, you’ll have to work for it. No tool will change that. This bodes well for people who are already used to working hard. Nothing changes, really. You get some extra tools, learn how to use them. And you continue to work as hard as you did before.
I find that very reassuring.